This morning on GDX we had a nice up move to the 21 daily Sma as yesterday’s bull flag towards yesterday’s close indicated would happen. The 21 sma acted as resistance and sellers came in on the first test.

For today’s close, although ABX closing under the prints, we had a couple of more decent sized prints in GDX at 21.13 -759,000 shares, NEM at 32.97 – 800,000 shares, and GLD at 111.37 – 155,000 shares. We closed above all three. Plus, despite a red close, GDX manage to close above the 4/8 EMA’s by $.01. SLV also closed above the 4/8 EMA’s on the day chart, as well as ABX.

I am going flat for tomorrow. SLV needs to close above 16.23 for me to start getting a lot more bullish on the precious metals and mining stocks. UUP looking bullish also. The indices look too toppy for me to be buying anything here overnight.

Gold had a clear opportunity to close in positive territory but instead meandered aimlessly into the close closing negative. It could gap down tomorrow. Slv could have completed a multi-week bear flag. Any gap up tomorrow might be sold. We had a mixed close on the miners today indicating some indecision.

The market makers are trading ABX today. About 2 million shares traded 15.59 and 15.55. If we can close above those prints today, there might be a good chance of rally into tomorrow. To help the pattern would be a green close on ABX today. I would be bearish on a close below 15.55.

the Market Makers traded a large block of shares this morning with the QQQ at 116.63. I see about 3.5 million shares traded at 116.63. If we close above it today, the market makers are biased long. If we close below, bias short.

add up another 1.3 million after I posted the above picture, for a total of about 5 mil at 116.63 so far.

UUP finds support at the 21 sma Day chart. UUP might still find another rally to $27ish after this consolidation pullback. This could hamper any gold rally and push gold below $1000.

GDX tagged resistance at the 21 sma, now at 21.71. Support is at the 4/8 EMA’s at 21.23/2. If GDX can close above the 21 sma today, the next level up is the 40 sma now at 22.89. If we close below the 4/8, look out below.

On PAAS I am looking for a rally today to $19.04, stop at $17.87.

Today I will watch to see if the 4 EMA can cross over the 8 EMA on volume on the daily GDX chart. Currently the 4 EMA is $.01 shy of crossing over the 8 EMA. Yesterday we closed above both, which is usually bullish. I will watch to see if GDX can rally to the 21 SMA now at $21.89. The 21 sma will probably act as the first level of resistance. GDX could see a pullback to 21.18 this morning before moving higher.

/GC is still weak this morning as the IAU close under the $11.29 print indicated that gold would be weak this morning. GDX is slightly positive this morning in the pre-market trading hours as the minor bull flag on the 5-min close yesterday indicated.

Since July, TLT has had a dramatic sell-off similar to gold. The price pattern of TLT and gold are very similar. For the month of November, TLT suffered the most severe wave iii/(iii) down. The bond market is already pricing in a Fed rate hike this month. TLT has a lot more downside to go to finish this major wave 1 down before seeing a more significant bounce. Rallies are to be sold.

My guess is that maybe TLT might sell off into the Fed meeting and then bounce afterwards. Sell the rumor, buy the news in a bear market?

I have been grappling with this question all year. And by the way gold has traded since July, the possibility of breaking below $1000 could certainly happen.

Here is me and the great Martin Armstrong at his 2015 World Economic Conference in Princeton, NJ.

The man is a trading genius. He has been really adamant about gold needing to break below $1000. Or if gold can close the year somewhere around $1270ish, then perhaps the bottom is in.

He was right about Brexit, right about Trump, and right about what is happening in Europe.

I love this youtube interview with a nine-year old boy talking about his options trading. If he can do it, so can I!