1:07 pm PST. Great trading in the precious metals today. SSRI broke above the upper trendline, backtested it and held it as support, then rallied up off the trendline into the close. GDX also had more prints in the afternoon about another 550,000 shares from 23.81-.83 and we closed above. I am super bullish on the mining stocks.
There was also some big buying of the Core Aggregate Bond etf, AGG, at 108.25-.27 and we closed above. I think the market is pricing no rate hike for tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. It looks to me as though the Dow needs to take a breather. The market makers are piling into the bond etfs. We closed above the 7 million prints on GOVT, and now we saw buying today in AGG and we closed above these dark pool buy prints. I remain shy of the Dow, SPY, and QQQ.
12:17 PM PST. Another huge block trade on the commodities etf, DBC. The market makers are buying commodities. DBC 5,207,516 shares block traded at 15.71. If we close above, it is bullish.
11:01 am PST. The iShares High Yield Corporate bond etf, HYG, also had a decent sized print for 500,000 at 87.32. HYG has a near identical pattern to SPY, so if we close below this print on HYG, I would also be bearish SPY.
10:58 am PST. We had some interesting and notable prints in GDX and the commodity etf, GCC, during this lunchtime.
GCC had 635,214 x 2 at 19.78. GDX had about 1.025 million at 23.75-.76. If we close above that will be bullish for these two etfs.
9:50 am PST. I just saw that the Barron’s Magazine Cover for this week touts Dow will go to 30,000 after surpassing the 20,000 mark. Another bearish sign.
7:00 am PST.
The QQQ could retrace all the way back to $114. That is the first level of major support. Support levels at $122, then $120, then $114.
5:27am PST. Gold futures are up $9.50 and it looks like if we close above 1201 today that is going to be a green light go to 1243 at least. Yesterday there were a lot of mixed signals in the gold sector. Silver closed bullish, but GDX and Gold did not. Sometimes I guess you have to be willing to lose in order to win and you have to know in which cases you can do that. I have been watching SSRI very closely for clues and wrote previously that the pattern looked bullish. Although we did not break out yesterday as I had anticipated, I think we are doing it now this morning. I am sometimes 1-3 days early on the trend trade and realize I need to slow down my trading. But, if SSRI closes today above the upper trendline, that is going to be a multi-month long buy and hold trade. The conservative way to do this trade would be to wait until the close today and see if SSRI closes above.
The dollar is down as expected because we closed yesterday under those large 1.6 million block trades on the UUP at 26.04. The Dow futures are also down slightly. We closed above the large 7 million prints on GOVT which is why as long we stay above that print I am not buying the Dow, spy, or qqq.
FCX also gapping up nicely this morning as anticipated from yesterday’s close.
The Dow closed down -122.65 points after being down 221 points in the morning. GOVT closed above the prints while the TLT sold off into the close as the indexes picked up a bid into the close. I am neutral on the indexes.
Silver closed above the 4/8 emas day, but gold, GDX, and a handful of miners closed below their 4/8s day charts which would typically be bearish. There were also no significant block trades in the dark pool to indicate a bias one way or the other on behalf of the market makers. UUP tested that big 1.6 million print at 26.04, sold off, and closed below. Still a lot of mixed signals in the gold sector.
However, FCX had a really nice 569,633 share print at 16.12 and it closed above. FCX looks bullish for tomorrow.
7:16 am PST. If SSRI breaks out and closes above the upper trendline, that is HUGELY bullish folks. Very very bullish. I think it is going to do that today. I am long the mining stocks and I am going on vacation. lol.