At the same time, I do not see the bond sell-off as done. I see a series of wave iv-v’s down into maybe March. If the money will flow out of bonds where will it go?

It is quite possible that we may have completed the top of major wave 3 this month, and are heading into a major wave 4, which would be a multi-month corrective triangle with the first sell-off being the steepest.

The daily charts shows negative divergence and a completed five-wave ending diagonal. Once the lower trend line breaks, NDX could pullback as far down as 4200. Just something to watch for.

NEM closed right on the upper channel trendline. Is this a backtest and then bounce? Typically that is what would occur… NEM stopped at the 200 sma.

UUP close right under the trend channel. I might need to make my lines thicker. 🙂

My musings on the elimination of cash. If governments succeed in eliminating cash, I think that would be the end of the dollar’s reign and bullish for commodities as where else are you going to keep your savings safe? Having a bag of rice in your kitchen is better than keeping dollars in the bank where it is liable to be confiscated at whim. 🙂 Just look at what happened in Greece.

Happy New Year!

12:28 pm PST. It looks like we are getting a gravestone on the 20-year bonds ETF, TLT, plus I saw an 800,000 share block trade at 119.62, which we will likely close below. I am bearish on bonds.

We also are getting a gravestone doji on gold, silver, and a lot of the mining stocks. Newmont mining backtested the support trendline, but broke down under it. If it closes below that is bearish. I also saw market makers selling the precious metals. In addition to the 2,000,000 GDX sell trade this morning, I saw 1,250,530 shares of DGL traded at 37.17. If we close below, that is added evidence of a bearish disposition. I am bearish precious metals stocks. 

The Dow continued to sell off today, still shy of the 20,000 milestone. But with the doji on the TLT, I think capital is going to start moving out of bonds and back into stocks in the new year. I am bullish on the Dow and the banking sector.

My 2016 results are in. I made a 63% return on my investment this year. A near fibonnacci ratio! 🙂 Whoohooo!! I am so happy that I believe my trading is turning around and I am showing a positive return. I expect myself to continue to trade well. All those years and hours practicing and studying is finally paying off. Time to celebrate!!!

I am really looking forward to 2017. I think next year is going to be a great year. I look forward to all the new profitable trading opportunities that will arise. And I look forward to making new friends and posting profitable trades!

10:11 am, PST. XLF is the only thing I like right now. lol. It is holding onto to moderate positive territory despite the sell-off in the indices and the bond rally. I think XLF could continue up to $26 for the first half of 2017.

I closed out all of my positions in everything. I am totally flat. I want to look at the market with a clean slate today going into the new year.

9:42 am. PST. Silver looks like a simple a-b-c wave iv retrace which could result in new lows next week.

9:27 am PST. RGLD is closing yesterday’s gap up, which is bearish. I might look to short the miners still watching. I am also looking to short TLT.

EXK also bounced just a hair above 3.60. If it closes red, I do not want to be long the mining stocks.

7:21 am PST. A 2,000,000 share block trade came in on GDX at 22.02, and it looks like profit taking, so I did the same. I exited EXK for +.40, PAAS for +.90, JNUG for +.50ish. You can also see a block trade for GLD at 110.50 for 400,000. We are below both. I might look to re-enter, just watching now.