For this minute wave, it looks like the QQQ will probably rally up to the 120-121 area before consolidating again. I count a wave v in process into next week, then consolidation. The question will be whether it will continue higher next year or drop sharply. A sharp drop in the new year is still possibility, but if the bonds sell off, it might have more upside.

4:22 update: exited mining stocks. Will wait to see what happens tomorrow.

1:08 pm. GDXJ closed above its 21 sma for the second day in a row. Just before the close a 150,000 share block print came in at 35.85 and we close squarely above. GDXJ closed above the 21sma, the 4/8 emas, and above the print. Bullish.

ABX also had a 200,000 share print at 15.88 and closed above. GLD had prints at $111.49/500,000 shares and 111.51/141,000 shares and closed above both. GDX close .01 under a 800,000 sell print, but that does not preclude the totality of the circumstances as GDX closed right on its 21 sma after hovering under it for three straight days.

I closed out my TLT short and took a small but risky position in the miners, a short position in LQD, and long position in QQQ. I saw 500,000 LQD shares block traded at 116.76 and we closed below.

ABX is so incredibly close to breaking above the neckline. It could also be rejected here. Possible bear flag.

USO had another 3,000,000 print at $11.30, which was probably the same market maker covering their short position for $.03. They change their minds too at 3 million shares a click. Lol. I supposed that could be bullish for oil.

12:16 update:  Took profits on DE, DIA, SPY calls, USO, UGAZ. There were 2,000,000 shares traded on USO at 11.33, if we close below it is bearish. There were also about 800,000 shares traded on GDX at 21.47. My only position right now is short TLT and will swing it for tomorrow.

10:49 update. Another print on GLD $11.49 250,000 traded. If we close below, I will sell short the GDX.

10:34 am update: there were dark pool prints for GLD at $111.63 250,000 shares traded; and GDX $21.35 233,000 shares traded. If we close below those prints, I would not go long ABX or any mining stock.

10:05 am pst

Going into the close the trades I like best are: USO long, UGAZ long, DE long, ABX long. I am amazed that ABX, gold and silver, have not sold off more in face of the dollar pop. Silver’s gap from yesterday is still open. Very interesting.

Short: FXE and TLT on rallies

9:02 am pst

Okay, at the risk of being really wrong, lol, here is my tentative count for PAAS. Possible minute wave i up today into the close, then wave ii, and tomorrow start of minute wave iii. GDX has to break above the 21 sma. There are lots of sellers at the 21 sma which is at 21.45 now.

7:49 am    DE is still on track to make new highs.

USO looks really good here. I want to see a little more consolidation, and if we close positive and above UWTI’s prints from yesterday it might be a buy. UWTI and DWTI are going to be delisted and I am not trading them, just watching their prints and levels for a USO equivalent. I will watch USO. I like it with a possible target of 11.70 at least. Support at 11.14.

7:26am. XLF looks like high volume upthrust. Market Makers are trading XLF today. 23.59 1.8 million and 23.50 1 million block traded.

8:31 am    another 1.1 million traded at 23.57. levels to watch

Nice gap up that looks like it may hold.

6:13 am PST.

I have to admit, I am impressed. GDX slightly net positive now even with the dollar rallying. I will watch the 21 sma again for a possible third test break through, and the 4/8 for support.