Closing Thoughts

1:05 pm PST. Wow. A very interesting comeback for treasuries. GDXJ sold off and made a new low and rallied all the way back to break even. That is a very bullish reversal pattern.

HYG made a new high today on increasing negative divergence.

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The Fed Gold bottom and Market Top

“Many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon” if data on jobs and inflation are “in line with or stronger than their current expectations” or if risks increased that the Fed might overshoot its goals, the meeting summary stated.

Jobs numbers indeed have been solid and the Consumer Price Index inflation indicator is at its highest level in years.

The minutes added that “a few” members believe raising rates at “an upcoming meeting” would allow the Fed greater flexibility to respond to higher-than-expected economic growth ahead. – CNBC.com

 

And GDXJ bounced right off the bottom of the channel. I jumped back into JNUG. The indices do not like the news. But they were topping anyway.

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GLD

10:20 I am out everything, except GOLD. Stopped out other mining stocks a bit earlier.

9:47 am PST. My GLD wave count is at odds with my TLT wave count, which is curious.

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UUP

9:41 am PST. There was a UUP print at 26.21 for 199,406 shares. That is more than 1/4 of today’s volume so far. We are currently under that.

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TLT

8:58 am PST. Changing my mind again on TLT. LOL. Could be a short, but I am going to wait until after the Fed minutes get released at 2 pm EST.

If the TLT is a short, then holy, the indices are going to have so much further to run. Then my alternate SPY count comes into play.

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Gold, SPY

7:22 am PST. The prospect of rate hikes at the Fed’s next meeting is weighing heavily on the gold and mining sector. Gold and mining stocks, especially took a nose dive and are still struggling right now. The close is going to be very important today on the miners.

Interestingly, TLT is still up.

Goldman Sachs is deciding whether to make a new high or not, as well as SPY. VXX is not making new lows.

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