Insightful Discussion with Chris Wood

In an in-depth interview with The Market NZZ, which has been lightly edited for clarity, Wood explains how China’s recovery will affect financial markets, what policies he expects from the Federal Reserve, what’s in it for gold, silver and commodities, and how investors can best navigate through these challenging waters.

Which will allow the Fed to declare victory and end this tightening cycle?

Yes, that’s my base case. They will cut rates once they realize there will be a recession or when we start to get real distress in the financial system. The key point will be whether the Fed gives greater priority to fighting recession over getting inflation below its 2% target. My base case remains that the Fed will fudge their 2% target. With that happening, my longer term base case is that we will see a period of structurally higher inflation in the coming years, which will be positive for equities but negative for government bonds.

What if not?

If I’m wrong and if the Fed keeps tightening all year and continues to shrink its balance sheet, then I think inflation will completely collapse and then you can make a lot of money owning Treasuries. But I don’t think that’s very realistic politically.

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