The dollar is having a nice rally this morning. The dollar could go to make new highs, which would be a big sell signal. The UUP did close above its 700,000 share block trade at 26.34 yesterday. UUP closed at 26.35, which is why yesterday’s close was interesting to me. Both gold and the dollar looked bullish at the same time yesterday at the close. /gc did rally slightly higher to 119.51, but GLD is negatively diverging. The mining stocks also closed yesterday with a bullish posture, but it remains to be seen whether the miners will also rally to new highs before retracing or whether this dollar rally will help the miners backtest their breakout trendlines. I exited my JNUG really early this morning for +.06. The risk-reward favors waiting on the mining stocks.

Dow futures are about flat.

UNG looks interesting this morning.

Interesting close. IAU closed above the 11.40 prints and it looks like gold will make yet another high tomorrow. IWM also looks like it completed a sideways consolidation since December. IWM had a 1.5 million share print at 135.70 and closed above it which also looks bullish. The steel stocks had a nice rally today, X in particular, closing above its 4/8 emas on the day chart. FCX, XME, and VALE also all gapped up and held their respective gaps from the morning.

Financials, while it looked as though it would break out, the consolidation had too much sell in it for me into the close to want to stay long so I exited that attempt.

11:12 am.

I might scratch the FAS trade and go long the miners again, depending. There were 171,928 shares of IAU block traded at 11.40, and about 700,000 shares of UUP block traded at 26.34. Those are going to be the levels I will watch. Bullish above, bearish below.

Here’s my potential ABX count.

9:15 am PST. XLF broke out of the upper-downtrend line. The coast is clear now for new highs. I exited FAS too soon, still looking for a place to re-enter. SPY and the DIA are buys now too.

California’s giant sequoia tree toppled from the rain. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/the-famous-redwood-tunnel-tree-fell-in-california/. Wow. I walked through this tree just several years ago. 🙂 Yes, it has been raining almost every weekend since November. This amount of rain is unusual, I have to say. I have been doing my outdoor-pool-swim workouts in the rain.

Well, at least we are coming out of the drought.

8:06 am. Out the rest +.53 and +.49. Okay, it’s the lunch hour and XLF is going to consolidate. I will look for another re-entry later.

7:56 am. Scaled out FAS +.42.

7:23 am. The 40 sma held up UUP and it bounced off of that. This might be wave 4 and we could see a new high for the dollar on negative divergence, which would be a sell. I am out of mining stocks right now and tracking XLF instead.

We also had a 500,000 share block trade on TLT at 121.75, which I think is a sell print.

7:12 am. There was 800,000 shares block traded at 23.36. If XLF can break above 23.41 on volume, I think it is a buy.

7:00 am. nevermind, I am out the rest +.24. I really do not like letting profits turn into losses. If GDX does go to $24, it might be a nice quick short for the re-test, otherwise I will wait and watch.

6:46 am. scaled out more +.41, +.48. Holding 1/8th left for target.

6:39 am. The dollar selling off this morning as we opened below yesterday’s UUP print. I jumped back into JNUG and have been scaling out at the open +.15, +.21, +.30. Still in half and I am going to let the rest run for the target or breakeven. I think GDX could rally to $24.

4:58 am. The dollar had a post-market drop as suggested by yesterday’s close under the 1 million share UUP print, but has since rallied back up this morning. Gold went up only slightly in proportion to the dollar’s drop, possibly indicating that traders are tiring of the yellow metal and are about to sell it off. It is negatively diverging. I exited my JNUG early this morning for about a +.20 and +.10 gain scaling out. I think I will just watch today for a pullback and backtest.

5:42 am. I realize FCX is up to new highs this morning as I expected would occur, but I was one day too early and got stopped out when the gap up did not occur yesterday, but is now occurring today. That happens a lot to me….anticipating the market one day too soon. I have to make a note of it so as to remember that while I could be right I might be early and to have a little more patience. Also I think my position size might have affected my decision along with reading some nonsensical advice from a former Goldman Sachs trader who wrote over the weekend that he thought FCX’s rally was over – has now shown to be completely wrong this morning. Why did I listen to this guy. lol. It seems harmless sometimes to read analysis from other people but it really can creep into the subconscious mind. One has to be so careful what you allow into your mind.

1:07 pm PST. I am just watching gold right now. UUP closed at 26.34 which is below the 1,000,000 share print and that is typically bearish for the dollar. Here is my count for Agnico Eagle Mines which has the same count as GDX and the other major miners. It could still go up to new highs this week.