7:07 am PST. SPY has further to go on the upside. I count waves iv-v/3, then (iv)-(v)/5 left, maybe into February.

Dollar futures backtested trendline. Support at 100.337 and resistance at 101.307. Could rally today.

/gc has support at 1173 and resistance at 1191. /nq has support at 5152 and resistance at 5179.

All that unusual emerging market buying the other day that we saw was buying. RSX up to 22.00 this morning. Good to keep an eye on. Bullish above the prints.

6:23 pm PST. The EUO and UUP is starting to looking bullish from a technical standpoint. Could be on the way to new highs.

I am going to set my ego aside for a moment and review a handful of trades that I ought to have nailed, but instead failed. This is a diary after all. Just because I write a blog does not mean I know anything about trading. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. So please excuse me while I engage in a little self-flagellation. If this is not pretty to read, please click away. I do this to help myself learn because I really want to improve my trading.

Trades I ought to have nailed: FCX, VALE, AMZN, TNA, FAS, LUV, TSLA. I was in right up until the very last minute shakeout before the big move up that I knew was in the works and could tell was coming but failed to be in the trade when it occurred. I will be damned if I let this happen again. I all knew these stocks would rally, that is why I had interest, but gave up. Good grief. All had the same situation to it – a corrective wave pattern, a couple more minute wave degrees lower that shook me out. My response was the same in all cases. I was just a 1-3 days too early, but ultimately right about the medium-term picture. How do I correct this? First be aware of the problem, then take steps to correct it. Change my response to the situation.

GOVT closed above that big 6 million + print. Nice reversal pattern on GOVT and TLT.

/GC bounced right off the pivot at 1183.9. It went right to it. I had a an overnight bull swing trade in GDXJ which did not work out today. I knew better because the technicals were not quite right and I had been expecting a test of the 21 sma which was not yet reached yesterday.  We also closed below the 4 ema day on lower volume. There was some doubt in my mind about my position and I got sidetracked with the smaller prints. When in doubt, stay out. I had good reason to be doubtful. Interesting lesson today.

11:15 am PST. X’s corrective pattern looks so much like IWM and XLF from the past 1.5 months. This corrective pattern happens so often, over and over and over again. It just takes time and practice to learn to trust the pattern and my own judgment about it.

10:23. XLF finally made the new high that I had been looking for for nearly a month! Ok. It is going up on negative divergence. The wave count looks almost complete. The Market Makers are buying bonds – GOVT – and the corrective pattern on bonds looks done, while the indexes are making new highs on negative divergence with a completing five elliot wave pattern. It could have a little more to go as the wave 5 seems really short in proportion to the other waves. Interesting juncture here.

The QQQ poking its head above the upper channel line too. Interesting to see what happens.

9:06 am PST. GOVT is catching a bid here. The wave pattern looks like a completed a-b-c correction. If we close above 24.93, which was the big print from the other day, that is going to be very bullish. We have a potentially very bullish technical set up in treasuries, which would also be bullish for gold. GOVT, TLT, GLD, SLV have similar price patterns.

7:16 am PST.

It would have been good to be in LUV. 🙂