8:56 am PST. LUV looks like a buy here to me to $60.

7:19 am PST. XLF could bounce here for wave b/(iv) to $25.10.

7:05 am PST. USO has been consolidating in a sideways triangle for months now and it could be bullish. If prices break above 11.80, we could see a quick rally up to $15.

5:48 am PST. The dollar futures look like they are about to break out in a wave 3 higher.

The Dow futures are slightly down this morning, but nothing too bad. The Dow is still consolidating. Silver is down and could probably go to $17 this week.

1:05 pm PST. The Dow sold off at the open and then caught a bid into the close, but it was a weak close for the indices. The TLT made a new low on positive divergence, but I am not super bullish. We could, however, see a bounce back up to 119.75 or 120 into the Fed short-term. The Dow needs to consolidate.

10:10 am PST. PAAS could drop all the way down to $13 by the time gold and silver are done correcting. Likewise, I think TLT is going to go to sub $116 on this current move after the Fed rate hike announcement. Just because everyone knows that the rate hike is going to happen does not mean that the market is done pricing it in yet. That is what I thought the last time the Fed raised rates last December- that the rate hike was already priced in –  but it was not the case. Gold and treasuries both rallied into the Fed, and then sold off dramatically after the announcement despite the fact that I thought everyone knew the rate hike was coming. I expect probably a similar reaction this time. The market will probably go into a sideways holding pattern until next Wednesday, with gold and treasuries bouncing into the Fed. If I see that happening, I am going to watch out below.

10:05 am PST. Silver backtested the trendline from below and sold off with TLT and gold. The first level of support for SLV short-term is 16.61 where I am looking for another short-term bounce.

8:36 am PST. I think we could be either in a minor degree wave (iv) in XLF, which would only be about a week-long corrective a-b-c-d-e triangle, or a larger wave degree (iv) which would take one-to-two months. I think what happens next week with the Fed is going to jolt the market, but leading up to that event, the pattern will probably give us a lot of clues. Unless XLF drops below 24, I think we could be in a minor degree wave (iv). Typically corrective wave iv’s are choppy making you think that it is definitely going in one direction all the way, only to turn around and go the other way, while eating up time.

8:31 am PST. It seems traders are selling almost everything today except nat gas. UNG looks like it could be a compelling buy if it closes above $7.00 with a bullish pattern.

5:04 am PST. TLT is up this morning at 119.62 as I wrote last Friday could happen today. It still could rally as high as 119.75, but I think the downtrend will resume. Dow futures are down this morning too.