6:38 am PST. TLT gapped down this morning as the dollar popped higher. I think we will go to 121.54 and then we will see how it does then. This morning is the first move down.

1:00 pm PST. Today’s price action is proof positive that one should not both buy treasuries and dollars. I see hedge fund managers saying buy treasuries and the dollar. One ought to trade them inversely. A bullish dollar is bearish on treasuries, and conversely and bearish dollar is bullish on treasuries.

The dollar etf, UUP, juxtaposed with TLT in black. 

IWM closed green. GDX closed red and looks bearish.

11:57 am PST. The dollar is in a death spiral. It broke down from the pivot. The gap open does not look good. It makes me concerned for gold bears.

11:06 am PST. The IWM momentarily just went green. I think if it closes positively today, that will be two days in a row closing positive. That is bullish, at least for me. There could be an inverse H&S.

9:48 am PST. GS missed earnings and is weighing heavily on the financial stocks. I wonder if this is what’s causing the rise in treasuries today. Treasuries are much stronger than the metals.

9:28 am PST. Silver is noticeably weaker than gold and could not retrace fully the morning’s drop. If it closes red, we could see a waterfall in the next day or two.

8:12 am PST. The dollar is just on support. If it closes below, look out below. But I think there’s a good chance it will bounce here.

7:48 am PST. Treasuries are still moving higher. I just saw a 567,700 share print at 119.38 on LQD, which has a very similar pattern to TLT. That was just less than half the total volume so far today, significant. Bullish above, bearish below. BAC had 1 million shares traded at 22.65-.66. The flight to treasuries is weighing on stocks and the dollar, but the tide may be turning.

6:50 am PST. GDX shows a strong sell-off. I expect a test of 23.47 at the very least, if not lower. I saw a block trade of 630,000 shares on GFI at 4.01, could be a sell.

6:04 am PST. The price action in the dollar looks interesting and shows some cause for concern for dollar bulls and gold bears. This morning the dollar has continued southward and almost looks as though it could waterfall. I plan to watch the price action in the dollar carefully today. If the USD/JPY breaks below 108 and closes below, that would be bearish.

The Euro etf, FXE, looks as though it bounced off this lower trendline.