5:37 am PST. The FXY made a new low this morning as expected, and silver and gold sold off too. My eventual target for USD/JPY is about 120, some months from now. The USD/JPY needs to consolidate for a bit right now, but eventually it will strive for the 120 target. This means gold and silver are also at risk of breaching below their Dec. 3, 2015 lows. Any buying of gold and silver right now is simply counter trend.

The FXY needs to close this morning’s gap down in order for it to have a more meaningful bounce. If not, then 85.50 becomes possible.

1:05 pm PST. The FXY had a little bounce into the close but could not close the morning’s gap and still looks vulnerable to yet another drop tomorrow as a result. But it’s getting close to the lower trendline.

The Nasdaq continues to outperform the Dow and SPX. The Nasdaq is for retailers, someone told me. If so, the retailers are really coming back in force while the institutional traders on the Dow and SPX are feeling more cautious as we can see the Dow and SPX lagging.

Gold managed to mostly close the morning’s gap, while SLV did not. I saw some interesting buying in the dark pool in silver and we closed above. We will see if that indicates bullishness. I am cautiously bullish because of FXY which looks almost done selling off, but not necessarily done, plus I saw some interesting silver buying in the dark pool – not huge, just interesting.

7:37 am PST. The Yen etf, FXY, is coming down to the bottom channel line, which I expect it to do a dead-cat bounce off of along with gold and silver. It is almost getting there, but not quite there yet.

6:11 am PST. Today is day 12 from Sunday’s high from the previous week. Silver has gone in nearly a straight line down since then. I have not seen a whole lot of action from the market makers in the gold/silver sector lately. Maybe soon. I cannot imagine they would pass up a good buying or shorting opportunity.

5:21 am PST. /GC continues to sell off this morning while silver holds its yesterday lows. /GC trading at 1253 as of this writing. These types of patterns can produce waterfalls, but I think possibly unlikely given how much silver has fallen already, and GDX is starting to positively diverge. So, I anticipate more of a choppy bounce in gold perhaps back to 1280, 1275 when silver bounces back to $17-17.50.

/gc 1250 is possible today, and then we will see, maybe 1244.

12:38 am PST. Perhaps SPX will go to 2405 after all. That was a steep sell off midday, some of which I caught, but stopped out on the rest of my SPY calls when buyers came right back in and took the SPY higher.

“Beijing has inveighed against the deployment and criticized the South Korean government for undermining bilateral relations by hosting the missile system.

Chinese citizens, among whom a sense of nationalism is strong, have also taken up the anti-THAAD mantle, protesting and boycotting South Korean businesses and tourism.

Several Chinese state-run media outlets have called for organized voluntary boycotts of South Korean businesses and imports. China is Seoul’s largest trading partner, receiving one-quarter of South Korea’s exports.” http://www.businessinsider.com/china-south-korea-economic-boycott-protests-over-thaad-missile-system-2017-3

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/04/25/asia-pacific/south-korea-tourist-numbers-plummet-china-boycott/#.WQdy5FKZN-U

10:28 am PST. Silver is getting absolutely crushed. It finally looks just about done. I am looking for a retrace back to 16.38, then 16.60 on a dead-cat bounce.

9:24 am PST. New target for SPY 237.50, then 236.58 by Friday.

7:29 am PST. It looks like the FXE will probably retest the upper trendline of this channel into the French election on May 7. I exited my SPY calls for about 25% and TLT puts for about 40%. Treasuries and gold are bouncing now, while the indices are pulling back. I think this will be a choppy week into the French elections, after which time the markets will probably trend again.