8:18 am PST. TLT is not going to break above 161 ema and continue to run higher on the first try. Sorry, not gonna happen. This could be the ending wave for TLT and gold. That should be good news for SPY and the Dollar. SPY triangle waves d-e left today and tomorrow, possibly into Thursday.

7:59 am PST. Gold finding conviction. Whoo. Will you hold and close above the 200 sma and continue tomorrow?

7:53 am PST. Will SPY break? Dow to 20262? Or will it bounce?

7:36 am PST. AAPL waterfall.

7:13 am PST. I just want to document how fear has been escalating with each wave down and each passing day, even though the IWM and SPY have just been triangling. VXX has been making new highs, but the SPY no new lows since March 27.

7:03 am PST. the IWM is noticeably stronger than QQQ, DIA, or SPY. It is possible that the indices could be done correcting here. If so, TLT, gold, the dollar, and the indices will reverse dramatically. I am positioned for that reversal.

6:56 am PST. SPY holds the 50 sma day for now, but possibly not for long.

6:43 am PST. Gold is up $14 at 1268 now. I did think the next time we saw 1261 we could break above. It will depend on the close today whether this break above 1261 hold. It looks more convincing, but the dollar cautions me still. The dollar looks as though it could merely be doing a temporary retracement, with possible further upside. Now, if gold can rally along with the dollar because of the rising geopolitical tensions with Korea, Syria, and Russia, that would be the most bullish signal ever for gold. But right now, it looks as though gold is getting a push higher because the indices and the dollar are pulling back. Treasuries are going up along with gold.

UUP could retrace as low as 25.91 and then we will see how it goes. It looks like UUP will probably take all this week to correct, and I think gold will continue to favor the bullish side this week as a result. As long as the dollar corrects, I think the indices will be under pressure. 

6:59 pm PST. BAC testing the upper trendline.

6:55 pm PST. Silver is almost about to break out to the upside from this triangle.