1:10 pm PST. I thought the Dow had a very constructive close. After yesterday’s 250+ point movements in both directions, the Dow traded in a narrower range with a lot of traders looking for further downside movement. However, I remain bullish and believe that today’s price action is the beginning of a new uptrend into about May.

Gold gapped down at the open and failed to close the gap. I saw an IAU print at 12.06 for 972k and we closed a penny below. The pattern plus a bearish print makes me think gold and treasuries are about to tank. Plus the dollar looks bullish.

Non-farm payrolls get released tomorrow morning at 8:30 am EST and I think this will ignite a rally higher in the indices.

6:02 am PST. The Dow futures are up this morning. I think this could be the beginning of the wave 3 uptrend. Corrective wave 2 shakeout done.

1:05 pm PST. The morning went as expected with even XOP with gains. But by lunch and then after the Fed minutes we saw a massive turn around in treasuries and equities. I guess I was totally wrong about that bounce. That small bounce turned into a big one and treasuries, TLT, could still go higher tomorrow at the open to 122. I would not be surprised if it did, but that would be a sell and an ending move. Likewise, SPY could also head down a little further tomorrow morning to complete point (c) in what I think is morphing into a triangle. I had thought a triangle was possible, but could not quite see how the move in the dollar would affect equities, now I see it. The dollar looks like it has made an interim top with the Euro and interim bottom. I think the dollar will probably correct until SPY completes the triangle.

The way that financials were much weaker today than the indices, going back to fill their morning gaps was a give away that the pattern was not the gap and go pattern, but that it was corrective, and possibly wedging.

Skydiving.

11:27 am PST. In the Fed minutes released today the Fed plans to unwind its $4.5 trillion in bonds on its balance sheet this year. TLT dropped on the news and is bouncing a little now, but I am not buying this bounce.

5:47 am PST. Treasuries are gapping down and the Dow futures are up this morning as expected. Gold futures are down more than $7 and I think it will continue down all day, as well as treasuries. It will be a bullish day for the indices and financials.

1:04 pm PST. TLT finally cracked below $121 but closed just above it. I remain bearish.

GDX had a strong close, but I am not sure if this is a bearish rising wedge or if GDX is about to break out to the upside.

The SPY just coiled and coiled and coiled all day. I think there is a big move coming, and I am biased to the upside.

XOP made gains today and continues to look bullish along with oil.

8:53 am PST. TLT gapped down this morning at the start. It attempted a gap fill and failed.  My May target is $115ish. Happy skiing!

5:04 am PST. I looked at TLT more closely yesterday and yesterday’s move up had a lot of volume. If this is just the beginning of a move, and not an ending move, it could become quite nasty for the Dow. TLT could rally as high as 122.93, and then we will see how it goes there. Stocks would probably simultaneously sell off until then.

1:06 pm PST. Lots of action today. Treasuries popped a lot higher today on what looks like an ending move. It could have one more minor high tomorrow at the open, and then TLT is going to drop like a rock to new lows. Or treasuries could start dropping like a rock tomorrow right at the open. I saw a block trade for GOVT, the core treasuries etf, at 25.11 for 2,056,413. We closed a penny below which means treasuries could start the fall as early as the open tomorrow morning. 

This morning’s sell off on the indices was a great buying opportunity for blue chip stocks and financials. I saw the market makers doing some bottom fishing on Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan.

I closed MS calls weeklys for +70% with an underlying move of about .50.

The EUR/USD ultimately went down and tagged my target at 1.0642 and bounced. I am not sure if the bounce is done yet. Generally, I am still bearish on the Euro.

The UUP could correction as far down as 25.79, which means that there is probably more upside for GDX and GLD.

I saw a block trade on XOP at 37.22 for 900,000. We closed above which makes me bullish on XOP.

4:26 pm PST. The reason I am still bullish on the Dow is because to me, financials still look like they have a fifth wave up into May. This makes me bearish on treasuries, bearish on the Euro, bearish gold and silver, and bullish the dollar, U.S. indices, and financials for now. General sentiment in the public is very bullish on the stock market which makes sentiment ripe for a wave (5). Just when a euphoric public thinks the market is going to continue on forever in a vertical line, the market makers are going to take the market down and it is probably going to correct for months, chopping back and forth, back and forth, back and forth, until it makes people sea sick and shakes most people out calling for a crash again. That is when the market will rise again, probably around August/September when the market makers return from vacation.