Correlations

“Currency is shares in the national corporation. Debt is an option on those shares. Currencies rise and fall on confidence, not on supply and demand.” – Martin Armstrong. Trump is talking down the dollar saying it is too strong. Trump is also now unilaterally bombing countries without consultation to anyone else. Yet, the dollar looks bullish. Very interesting.

The 6th Dimension in Understanding the Global Economy is Correlations between sectors of capital.

I am studying the correlations between the US Dollar, Treasuries, Gold, and Stocks. I see fund managers writing that they expect treasuries, the dollar, and gold to rise this year. Which is interesting to me, because I initially disagreed with that theory as I thought only treasuries and gold rose together, while the dollar and stocks rose in opposite correlation together. However, the initial theory makes sense that the dollar and treasuries should rise together if one looks at the market from a confidence perspective. If the rest of the world is going down in flames, such as the Euro, war in Asia, and terrorism in the middle east, then capital would concentrate in U.S. assets such as the dollar, stocks, and treasuries, as well as gold. So then why are the dollar and treasuries moving in opposite directions now?

 

 

 

Leave a comment