6:43 am PST. Gold is up $14 at 1268 now. I did think the next time we saw 1261 we could break above. It will depend on the close today whether this break above 1261 hold. It looks more convincing, but the dollar cautions me still. The dollar looks as though it could merely be doing a temporary retracement, with possible further upside. Now, if gold can rally along with the dollar because of the rising geopolitical tensions with Korea, Syria, and Russia, that would be the most bullish signal ever for gold. But right now, it looks as though gold is getting a push higher because the indices and the dollar are pulling back. Treasuries are going up along with gold.

UUP could retrace as low as 25.91 and then we will see how it goes. It looks like UUP will probably take all this week to correct, and I think gold will continue to favor the bullish side this week as a result. As long as the dollar corrects, I think the indices will be under pressure.