Closing Thoughts

1:05 pm PST. The morning went as expected with even XOP with gains. But by lunch and then after the Fed minutes we saw a massive turn around in treasuries and equities. I guess I was totally wrong about that bounce. That small bounce turned into a big one and treasuries, TLT, could still go higher tomorrow at the open to 122. I would not be surprised if it did, but that would be a sell and an ending move. Likewise, SPY could also head down a little further tomorrow morning to complete point (c) in what I think is morphing into a triangle. I had thought a triangle was possible, but could not quite see how the move in the dollar would affect equities, now I see it. The dollar looks like it has made an interim top with the Euro and interim bottom. I think the dollar will probably correct until SPY completes the triangle.

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The way that financials were much weaker today than the indices, going back to fill their morning gaps was a give away that the pattern was not the gap and go pattern, but that it was corrective, and possibly wedging.

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