4:52 am PST. Silver is testing this black trendline this morning at 16.40. The 8 ema is at 16.38 and there is a confluence of support around 16.30. I expect SLV to close above this trendline today and continue higher next week. Silver is in a new trading range now.

ABX has double bullish descending wedge breakouts. Gold is not going below $1000. It bottomed December 3, 2015. That is it. Ofcourse, gold will not go up in a straight line and there will be back and fill, but the bottom is in.

It looks like silver already broke out in multiple time frames. Plus it has a wave overlap with wave 1. Bullish.

It looks like a possible bull flag to me on the monthly chart. The upper trendline on the weekly that gold would have to rally above for breakout is about $1300.

1:02 pm PST. GDX closed strong, holding the morning’s gap open. I think GDX will go to the 200 sma which is just above us.

HYG, the corporate bond etf, which has a very similar pattern to SPX, made another marginal new high today on increasing negative divergence. I have posted two charts of HYG with an SPX overlap in black.

The UUP had a smaller 110,000 share block trade at 25.80 and we closed below. We also closed below the 4 EMA again, which means the trend is still down for now in the dollar.

7:59 am PST.

Here is a nice chart of EXK. Yesterday it closed above the 200 sma day. I would say the 200 sma is support. That is also the upper trendline breakout point.

If you have read Stan Weinstein’s trading book, a sideways consolidation breakout is typically a very bullish pattern.

6:16 am PST. /DX bouncing off a pivot support.

5:37 am PST. Nice. Gold is up $17.10 this morning. I think we will surpass $1243.20 soon, which was my level of confirmation for a new bull market wave 3 higher. $1243.20 was the bottom of wave 1 down of the correction. In Elliot wave speak, wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1 if the market intends to do another impulsive wave further down – in this case to below $1000. If we overlap $1243.20, that means no more impulsive wave down and gold is in a new major wave 3 higher. Typically what happens is that prices will overlap the wave 1 bottom, retrace a little, then continue the march higher. We have not yet overlapped $1243.20, so another wave down to below $1000 is still possible, but looking at the mining stocks gives us a lot of clues. I think the mining stocks say gold is in a new wave 3 up.

The dollar could waterfall from here.

My horizontal line shows the overlap confirmation point.

1:25 pm PST. This is also the second day SLV has closed above the 161 EMA. Yesterday it gapped up over, today it went down and tested it exactly, as well as the 4EMA and bounced, albeit on lower volume. Interesting.

1:21 pm PST. The dollar closed still bearish. It backtested the 4 ema and sold off on higher volume. It is still below so technically still bearish. HYG made a marginal new high on even greater negative divergence.

Facebook, on the other hand, had a major pop higher after the earnings announcement today.

Gold looks like it ought to retrace further, but I keep saying that and it keeps climbing. There is always the risk that it could retrace further, but GDX closed above the 4/8 today, albeit on lower volume, so technically the trend is still up.

11:33 am PST. The fact that SSRI held the backtest after the Fed announcement is very good. Also that AUY is moving up when it could have done the wave c, is very bullish.

8:13 am PST. Possible wave count for AUY. I am totally flat.