Buying the SPY from the low of 2016 and holding through to the high of yesterday would have netted about about a 25% gain. Selling the VXX from the 2016 low to yesterday’s high would have netted an 82% gain in the same time. 20-20 is hindsight, but it is interesting for me to see how much faster the VXX declines against the SPY rallying. Buying VXX calls or selling VXX puts is interesting. Just learning about this.

Article on VIX contango and backwardation and how it works: https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/09/the-cost-of-contango-its-not-the-daily-roll/

Cameron Osborne’s talk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adjLOuu10ms&feature=youtu.be

I wanted to post a link to this article with some really outstanding technical analysis on the Dow. I just came out of an e-talk on the Dow and trading volatility this year, and all the evidence I am looking at: from technical indicators, to historical patterns, to interest rates rising, to bonds declining points to Dow going up to the 35,000 area like Martin Armstrong says. He has been saying it for years, but I needed to see the technical data and reasoning behind it, and I just did. Now I have an open mind about it. I think the Dow could double from here into 2019. This is not the mainstream view. I will trade it one day at a time.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/43229/wednesday-reportthe-jaws-of-life-the-most-hated-bull-market-in-history

The US 10-year treasury yield may have just broken up out of the bearish channel going back 20 years. That is going to be insanely bullish long-term for interest rates. That means  bond prices are going down for years. Where is that money going to go? Stocks. TBT might be the trade of the decade.

On Bitcoin, it probably needs to handle the cup.

The Chinese are buying bitcoin, not gold. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/bitcoin-what-next/

Have a plan so that when you have profits you take them at least partially. Your plan will also help reduce drawdowns when the trade does not go according to plan. It is okay to go to a cash position after you have had a big move. If you miss an opportunity another will come along. Scale out of your positions.

Your timing must be impeccable on every trade. It is the only real way to trade successfully. Scale, scale, scale. It takes discipline to scale out of winning trades.

Always keep an open mind. Be ready to take the opposite side. Impeccable timing and patience is the name of the game.

1:04 pm. The Dow – what a tease – 19,999.63. I am sure we will see 20,000 next week, possibly Monday. TLT looks like a big short. I am going to take the weekend to review. TSLA looks like a short-term short soon, NFLX a short: print at 131.50/500,000, closed below. Have a great weekend everybody!

12:38 pm PST.

FCX is looking positive. There were prints at 14.80, 14.78, 14.88, totalling about 450,000 and it looks we are going to close above. There was one print at 14.99 for 134,000 which is why FCX is having trouble closing above $15 today.

ABX had some dark pool buying at 16.91, 176,000 shares. There is an outside chance that GDX and the miners could rally early next week to new highs.

I am trying a long side position in PAAS.

Here is my possible wave count for GDX. 

10:09 am. With consumer confidence running a 13-year high, I want to buy AMZN calls on a pullback.

9:02 am. 150,000 block traded at 14.80. FCX is the only thing I might want to buy today at the close. It depends on how it closes.

8:58 a.m PST. If TLT goes to $120, that is probably the end of the bond dead-cat bounce. The capital will flow back into stocks. I would expect gold to follow TLT down to new lows.

8:46 am. Nasdaq reaches 5000! Could be a breakout. I am not sure I will trade anymore today. The market humbling me this morning. I fall in love too easily. I needed to have gotten out of all my positions yesterday – like Mr. 007 Gold. 🙂 Do you have your MoneyPenny? Or she a bond girl?

IAU 700,000 block traded at 11.30.

8:27 am. XLF is probably going to work its way higher to $24.50ish.