8:32 am. A very large 5,000,000 share print came in on the UK ETF, EWU, at 31.25. Do you see that big volume spiker today? That was the dark pool. We have not seen that sort of volume block trade on this etf in more than six months. The etf is negatively diverging and I am guessing this could be a short-sell or profit taking. Either way it looks like it might be selling. If we close below 31.25 today, I might short the UK eft.

8:05 am. There it is, /NG at 3.425, just as I thought it would do from my pre-market post. I need a little more confidence in my perceptions of the price action…lol. If we close above this level, I think nat gas is in a new bull market. Watching again.

7:46 am PST. I might look to short the Euro today. It looks like the dollar may have put in a wave 4 bottom. I will wait until the close.

7:32 am. OMG. nat gas just shot up about three seconds after I exited my trade. OMG. Oh man. I cannot believe that I just missed that. I think this is probably the fifth trade that I missed this year – VALE, FCX, XME, TSLA, now UGAZ today. Focus on patience. I just have to write this. Missing a trade is almost just as bad as losing a trade. I am not going to chase this trade. I am done for today until the close. Too many mistakes this morning. My clear lack of experience is getting to me. LOL. The two good trades I did today was exiting 30% gain on GDX calls and about 20% on UNG calls. Cheers.

7:29. Ok, now I am totally flat. I think I made maybe .04 on that last trade.

7:17 am. I am totally flat right now except for UGAZ.

6:36 am PST. I closed out all my TNA, TECL, FAS longs and bought nat gas in the pre-market. Switching sectors.

6:24 am PST. With global temperatures dropping setting record colds throughout the world, the sun output declining, and the Earth entering into a new mini ice age, I think natural gas might have just entered a new bull market. See this article on how sunspot activity has dropped dramatically in the last four years: http://www.hngn.com/articles/209786/20161004/ice-age-grip-earth-nasa-image-show-sun-going-blank-fourth-time.htm

Here is a picture of snow that fell on the Sahara Desert December 19, 2016.

I like UGAZ and CHK for the global cooling play. /NG could see 3.425 today.

4:21 am PST. I am so thankful for my block trade indicator. Everyone ought to have one live to watch the block trades as they come in. That GDX block trade yesterday at 22.50 kept me on the right side of the trade for today. I actually was short going into the close yesterday, believe it or not, and then I saw the block trade come in. I remained short until 2 minutes before the close and until I could see we would close above 22.50. I exited my shorts and turned around and went long. I am so thankful this morning that I did. Whoohoo! Traders must always be willing to flip positions. I am a bamboo tree that bends with the wind. 🙂

/GC has resistance at 1210.50. If we break and close above that, we are in a whole new territory. UUP has support at the 50 sma which is now at 26.10, and there is a pivot support at 26.08.

I am going to be watching to see if this is the start of major wave 3 up in the miners as ABX did backtest support yesterday and bounced. There is an outside chance that this could be the start of major wave 3 up, or it could be wave v – that is the tricky thing. One has to use elliot wave counts in addition to something else such as trendlines, moving averages, block trades, etc. I will watch to see if we have any more block trades this morning in the precious metals-mining sector.

For long-term buy and holders, there is not a whole lot to worry about as I believe we are at the beginning of a new bull market in gold – the middle part. So even if we retrace, eventually gold will be higher months from now. I have yet to enter into a long-term position in the miners and I will have to consider doing so soon. I am trying to decide what I want to hold for the long-term, maybe Seabridge Gold (SA), GDXJ, and a little JNUG which has some slippage on retracements, but does better percentage-wise in an uptrend.

The one caveat I have to all of this is bonds – TLT and gold have near identical patterns and I know the sell-off in bonds is not over yet. That is why this business is all about “managing risk” as there are no 100% guarantees. 🙂 I suppose one could short TLT while staying long miners as a way to hedge that risk, although I am not quite sure I will do that myself. Or have equal weighting to the indices/blue chip stocks and the mining sector, depending on your risk tolerance.

The Dow futures are down slightly this morning, but still holding onto some of yesterday’s gains. Not to much to be worried about, but I will be keeping an eye on those as I am long the Russell and Nasdaq.

7:30 pm PST. I just noticed ABX backtested the downtrend line from July and bounced. I am not sure this is the blast off phase yet, but I am keeping an open mind.

12:28 pm. Update: GDX 862,067 block traded at 22.50. If we close below that, watch out below – if we close above, gold lives for another day. IWM so far about 1.3 million block traded from 136.05-136.16. If we close above 136.16, bullish.

12:07 pm PST. Going into the close I am bullish on SPY, QQQ, the Russell small cap index, and financials. I am bearish on bonds and gold. UUP found support near my 26.10 level on positive divergence and bounced. The TLT made a new high and now has a gravestone doji going into the close. I think the capital is going to flow back out of bonds now which will give the Dow the fuel it needs to rally above 20,000.

10:42 am. Stopped out the remainder +.28. Will look to short GDX at the close today or at the open tomorrow. I think this is a wave 4 retrace for the dollar. GLD negatively diverging as is GDX. GDX is not making a new high while gold is.

10:19 am PST. Scaled out another 1/4 +.44 on JNUG.

10:07 am. I jumped back in on JNUG. Scaled out 1/2 +.29.

9:55 am PST. UUP looks like it is going to $26. Support at 26.22, then 26.10, then 26. I am bullish on the miners until then.

8:46 a.m PST. I bought some TECL on this pullback. about 370,000 shares of QQQ block traded at 122.18-.19.

8:55 am. stopped out rest -.08.

8:40 am. PST. Scaled out 1/2 JNUG +.20.

7:33 am PST. If the 16.60 low holds on PAAS, it is very possible that this is just a corrective wave iv. I might buy back in here on the miners.