4:21 am PST. I am so thankful for my block trade indicator. Everyone ought to have one live to watch the block trades as they come in. That GDX block trade yesterday at 22.50 kept me on the right side of the trade for today. I actually was short going into the close yesterday, believe it or not, and then I saw the block trade come in. I remained short until 2 minutes before the close and until I could see we would close above 22.50. I exited my shorts and turned around and went long. I am so thankful this morning that I did. Whoohoo! Traders must always be willing to flip positions. I am a bamboo tree that bends with the wind. 🙂

/GC has resistance at 1210.50. If we break and close above that, we are in a whole new territory. UUP has support at the 50 sma which is now at 26.10, and there is a pivot support at 26.08.

I am going to be watching to see if this is the start of major wave 3 up in the miners as ABX did backtest support yesterday and bounced. There is an outside chance that this could be the start of major wave 3 up, or it could be wave v – that is the tricky thing. One has to use elliot wave counts in addition to something else such as trendlines, moving averages, block trades, etc. I will watch to see if we have any more block trades this morning in the precious metals-mining sector.

For long-term buy and holders, there is not a whole lot to worry about as I believe we are at the beginning of a new bull market in gold – the middle part. So even if we retrace, eventually gold will be higher months from now. I have yet to enter into a long-term position in the miners and I will have to consider doing so soon. I am trying to decide what I want to hold for the long-term, maybe Seabridge Gold (SA), GDXJ, and a little JNUG which has some slippage on retracements, but does better percentage-wise in an uptrend.

The one caveat I have to all of this is bonds – TLT and gold have near identical patterns and I know the sell-off in bonds is not over yet. That is why this business is all about “managing risk” as there are no 100% guarantees. 🙂 I suppose one could short TLT while staying long miners as a way to hedge that risk, although I am not quite sure I will do that myself. Or have equal weighting to the indices/blue chip stocks and the mining sector, depending on your risk tolerance.

The Dow futures are down slightly this morning, but still holding onto some of yesterday’s gains. Not to much to be worried about, but I will be keeping an eye on those as I am long the Russell and Nasdaq.