11/15/16 Edit. In thinking about what happened on Fed day and how I could have traded it better. I had it stuck in my mind that the interest rate hike was already priced into the market and when the news could come out the market would reverse, but instead the market continued in the same directional trend. I had not considered that possibility, although many of the signs were already there in place. I could feel that my positions were making me nervous, a clear sign to exit. I could have listened to that intuition and waited for post announcement.

Clearly a very exciting day. If I were a better trader I would have shorted the mining stocks, shorted the indices, shorted bonds, and gone long the dollar. Fortunes are made on days like today. So, okay, I get that I have a lot more room for improvement. That is why I do this. I have to work on my inner game first.

Here’s my TLT Wave Count. It looks to me like wave (v)/3 down which could extend or end tomorrow with a wave 4 bounce around the corner.

The verdict is in. Fed raises rates and the dollar soars. I exited all my positions at a loss. I have definitely had better fed days. I expect new highs in UUP. There are some days when I have traded the Fed announcement really really well, but today is not one of them.

I look forward to gold sub $1000. Well, at least my cash positions are doing well. One  always ought to see the positive side of everything.

10:09. I saw about 5.5 million SPY prints at 227.73. Here are a few of the prints below:

GDX also doubled backtested the 21 sma from above. The market is trying to see if there is any quicksand underneath there. :). I have a small long NUGT position on.

8:51 back in Newmont and PAAS. Sometimes I think it is better to hold through the short-term volatility and holding for my longer-term thesis, than getting stopped out so easily and then having to re-enter at higher prices on route to the longer-term target. 🙂

8:34 I will wait until after the Fed announcement. NUGT 8.40 dark pool support lasted for just the morning session until about 8:00.

8:22. out everything.

8:02 Bought NUGT @ 8.37.

7:57 am. I am long NEM from 33.66. I will look for a close above 34.40 today for more upside tomorrow and the following weeks. Stop breakeven.

6:41 am. The premarket prints are coming in. NUGT huge buying at 8.40. That is going to be a level of support at 8.40 regardless of the Fed. I see about 2.2 million traded at that price.

GDX gapped up over the 21 sma and that brick wall is now going to be support. ABX is right up against what could have been a bear flag, and the major neckline.  If we close above that trendline, that is going to be hugely bullish. I am looking at major WAVE 3 up.

GDX:

6:08. Re-entered JNUG 1/2 position from 6.76.

6:00 am. GDX is again pushing right up against the 21 sma which is now at 21.18. That 21 sma is a brick wall! It might take the Fed to finally help move above it. This is the fourth attempt here.

Gold and bonds have been selling off right into this Fed meeting on the rumor that there will be a rate hike. Once the news comes out, both bonds and gold might pop higher on a short squeeze.

/GC has support at 1160 and resistance at 1166. We are right in between now.

It looks like we are almost done with this up-wave fractal. I have to say that my wave count worked well. Now, had I traded my own wave count to completion that would really have been something. We could have one little more minuette wave up before rolling over. I saw one 400,000 share block trade at 120.48 this morning. It might be selling.

5:18 exited the remainder JNUG for +.18.

5:16 a.m. PST. I imagine there is going to be a bit of volatility today after the Fed announcement. Gold and silver are up slightly now, but I am not sure that it will stay that way. I took 2/3 of my JNUG position off this morning for +.23 and +.21. I might exit all of it or hold through the volatility, depending, and then we will see about the close.

The dollar is slightly down, but could easily push higher.

My Wave count for PAAS is still in play. 🙂